As is fashionable at the turn of the year, I thought I would give some consideration to what the new year might bring us in 2012. I often used to quote Sam Goldwyn, although I understand that I should be crediting the great Danish scientist Niels Bohr, in saying "it is exceedingly difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future". If we ever doubted this, we should consider the predictions made by the knowledgeable for 2011.
I looked back at the Economist publication, “The World in 2011”, an annual which does have the good grace to review its own predictions retrospectively each year. One of the biggest events of last year was the “Arab Spring”. What did the forecasters have to say about this?
Tunisia is where the Arab Spring was born. Tunisia did not feature at all in the magazine, including in the summary of countries and their prospects across North Africa. Egypt would have elections for the succession of Mubarak which would pass on to his son, whilst Libya would remain under Gadhafi. Not one hint that there would be a massive uprising of popular sentiment and an overthrow of the regimes.
In Japan we have seen the terrible earthquake and tsunami and in Thailand widespread flooding, of course these were not predicted either.
So let us ponder 2012. I predict that something unusual will happen that none of us can foresee. And that’s why we should plan for what are essentially unforeseen events that interrupt business and life in general, and not for a long series of specific scenarios which will never happen or at least, not in the way that you might predict. Have a good 2012!