When risk assessment becomes personal

August bank holiday brought about some reasonable weather and we decided to visit some gardens in Norfolk that had inspired us in the past.  So we had a pleasant day and picked up some fish and chips to eat overlooking the water at a favourite spot for us, Blakeney.

When we arrived there were a lot of cars and it was obvious that August bank holiday had brought out a lot of people with the same idea.  We managed to park a little further down, next to a car who had preceded us and another soon parked the other side of us.  Various other cars were coming and going behind us and visiting the boats further away from the Quay.

We finished the fish and chips and decided to walk the dog a little before leaving so that she could have a stretch and whatever else might be needed.  As we walked away from the car the low sun was making a striking picture and so I took a shot.  You can see my car in the foreground, the car that was this side had just left.

As you can probably see, there are a lot of cars here, and it is a popular National Trust car park.  Now, it is at this point that I should have done the risk assessment as subsequent events will reveal.

We know this site really well, have walked and stayed around this area many, many times over the last 15 years or more.  We walked down to a wreck that has been standing along the creek for many years, admired the views, remarked on the high water and turned back.  The picture above was taken at 1847, we came back to the car within 30 minutes and I took the next picture at 1925 after some deliberation.  My car was now completely on its own and a considerable crowd was looking on; it was up to the door sills in sea water.

This picture was taken after Gill gained access via the tailgate to avoid opening the doors and letting water in, unfortunately the water was already in.  A bystander advised us not to start it and so I put the camera down, and gave the dog to someone and waded into the water and with help, we pushed it out.  We let it stand and drain and then tried starting it.  The engine ran and then died.  A couple more goes with the same result, and then an error on the dashboard and the car won’t be starting.

So now it is pointed out that the tide is still rising.  It is one of the highest I have ever seen at this spot and other cars are now being moved in a hurry.  Some owners are not back as water laps around their wheels.  With help, we push our car through the water to drier and slightly higher land near the road.  We call the RAC.  Others are now rescuing their cars too, one Range Rover is lucky as he is right in the water but his high ground clearance means that he can get in and drive away.

There is much discussion with the assorted bystanders who tell us of the same event yesterday when an Audi was inundated up to the windows.  Well, the RAC took us home and after a lot of messing about with insurance companies, the car is now a write-off.  Too many clever electrics ruined by sea water, besides soaking metal frames in salt water is not a recommended way to prolong their life.

So what about that risk assessment?  Were there any signs to warn me? No – and talking to others who had saved their cars in the nick of time, they had not seen anything.  Nobody mentioned the possible incoming tide when we parked or walked away.  But I did look and think, “the tide is coming in and we’re close to the side” – but then I knew this spot and thought it would be ok.  I did not think, “its a few weeks before autumn solstice and the tide is going to be high”, nor did it dawn on me that the tide would rise that far that quick.

Well, no comfort there.  Nobody was hurt but it will mean that I will lose money (insurance covers the cost of the car but not replacement value) and it is inconvenient.  As a way of writing off a car it is relatively painless.  However next time you park your car, just have a little think about the risk of leaving your car in that particular spot.  The final picture was taken in fading light, by this time the whole car park is underwater.

Evolving risks

I am regularly frustrated to find risk related articles talking about the increasing riskiness of modern life and listing all the disasters that have caught the eye of that particular author.  They completely fail to acknowledge that whilst some risks increase, others decrease, and that overall life is getting less risky.  After all there are more of us than ever and we live longer and healthier lives than ever before.

Let us look at just the UK in my lifetime.  When I was young, my Mum warned me that the neighbours little boy was ill and that I should avoid him in case he was infectious.  It turned out he had Polio, a disease now unknown in the UK.  Killer diseases of young children were once common, but are now rare in the UK.  Deaths from road traffic accidents have steadily declined, once there were 6000 deaths per year and now there are around 3000, despite a vast increase in traffic.

Similarly, we are constantly warned about the dangers of terrorist attack.  In 1972 479 people were killed in terrorist actions in the UK.  This was a particular peak but totals over 200 per year were common enough.  Compared to this, the current attacks have proven to be relatively minor - traumatic and dreadful though they have been, when looking at the overall risk, it is significantly less than it was.  

I was prompted to ponder on this because today I ran across more evidence on the same lines.  The illustrated edition of Super Freakonomics shows the massive decline in deaths from fire in New York, a 90% fall in the last 100 years.  Better buildings, regulations, compulsory fire exits, drills, alarms and so on have all contributed to this. See http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/the-miraculous-decline-in-deaths-by-fire/ for more.

So the next time someone starts to talk about how risky the world is, just think about whether it is really true.

Terrorist threat in UK

The Head of the Security Service has today re-iterated that the UK continues to be a target for terrorists.  In an interesting statement, he acknowledges the threat from Irish dissident groups and the shifting pattern of international terrorism.  His full statement is at https://www.mi5.gov.uk/output/the-threat-to-national-security.html.